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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending together. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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